declared-synthetic-positive-control
Verdict: KEEP
- Cut sub-reason
- absent from this receipt
- Unmeasured sub-reason
- absent from this receipt
- Value class
- transformative-lift
- Wrong instrument
- no
- Declared synthetic control
- yes
Declared synthetic positive control KEEP (2026-07-27): Full 8/8 vs Null 0/8, posterior p_win 0.99. Effect exists by construction; this receipt labels the KEEP as synthetic-control instrument validation, not a production-skill KEEP.
Cost beside evidence
| Leg | Figure | Detail |
|---|---|---|
standing_tokens | REFUSED (not_instrumented) | Synthetic control skill; standing cost not part of the KEEP claim. |
fired_tokens | REFUSED (not_instrumented) | absent from this receipt |
aux_tokens | REFUSED (not_applicable) | absent from this receipt |
Clause-level evidence grade
Clause evidence: UNMEASURED (no_extraction: clause evidence requires an extraction output; produce one with skill init --out <file>)
Measurements
Keys the standard defines but this receipt does not carry are listed as absent rather than filled in.
| Key | Figure | Detail |
|---|---|---|
Null-arm (no-skill) pass rate from a Stage-0 screen.p0 | absent from this receipt | absent from this receipt |
Full-arm pass rate from a paired run.full_pass_rate | 1.0 (8/8 epochs) | absent from this receipt |
Null-arm pass rate from a paired run (may equal p0 when only a screen ran).null_pass_rate | 0.0 (0/8 epochs) | absent from this receipt |
Posterior P(rate above threshold) from the paired fit.p_win | 0.99 | Posterior p_win reported as 0.99 (CHANGELOG r3 positive control also cites 0.9899 pre-freeze). |
Paired per-epoch discordance rate d-hat (and optional CI in detail).discordance_rate | absent from this receipt | absent from this receipt |
Pre-stated GO/NO-GO apparatus gate when one was registered.go_nogo | NOT_APPLICABLE | absent from this receipt |
Null-arm hazard-entry rate: the fraction of Null epochs where the hazard pattern was entered.hazard_entry_null | absent from this receipt | absent from this receipt |
Full-arm hazard-entry rate: the fraction of Full epochs where the hazard pattern was entered.hazard_entry_full | absent from this receipt | absent from this receipt |
Null-arm completion rate: the fraction of Null epochs where the completion oracle scored pass.null_completion_rate | absent from this receipt | absent from this receipt |
Full-arm completion rate: the fraction of Full epochs where the completion oracle scored pass.full_completion_rate | absent from this receipt | absent from this receipt |
Silent violation rate: the fraction of epochs where completion held but invariant failed (C=1, I=0).silent_violation_rate | absent from this receipt | absent from this receipt |
Evidence admissibility
Status: admissible
Store-backed paired Full-vs-Null run; evidence cleared the evidence admissibility gate at write time.
Instrument identity
Figures produced under different instrument identities are not comparable, so the generation stamp travels with the figures.
- extractor_model
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5- prompt_fingerprint
synthetic-control-paired-2026-07-27- schema_fingerprint
subject-file_contains+paired-freeze-binary
Subject identity
subject not recorded in this receipt; the prose source may name it (README.md)
Currentness
- state
STALE- basis
NONE- last_checked_at
- absent from this receipt
- next_check_due
- absent from this receipt
- max_age_days
- absent from this receipt
Source of record
- Repo-relative path to the prose source of record.
prose_path - README.md
- ISO date of the underlying result when known.
date notes- Declared synthetic positive control — a skill carrying an invented fact, so the effect is real by construction. First store-backed KEEP; validates the instrument label, not a production skill. Cross-ref docs/FAQ.md.