declared-synthetic-positive-control
Verdict: KEEP
- Cut sub-reason
- null
- Unmeasured sub-reason
- null
- Value class
- transformative-lift
- Wrong instrument
- false
- Declared synthetic control
- true
Declared synthetic positive control KEEP (2026-07-27): Full 8/8 vs Null 0/8, posterior p_win 0.99. Effect exists by construction; this receipt labels the KEEP as synthetic-control instrument validation, not a production-skill KEEP.
Cost beside evidence
| Leg | Figure | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| standing_tokens | REFUSED (not_instrumented) | Synthetic control skill; standing cost not part of the KEEP claim. |
| fired_tokens | REFUSED (not_instrumented) | |
| aux_tokens | REFUSED (not_applicable) |
Clause-level evidence grade
Clause evidence: UNMEASURED (no_extraction: clause evidence requires an extraction output; produce one with skill init --out <file>)
Measurements
Keys the standard defines but this receipt does not carry are listed as absent rather than filled in.
| Key | Figure | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| p0 | absent from this receipt | |
| full_pass_rate | 1.0 (8/8 epochs) | |
| null_pass_rate | 0.0 (0/8 epochs) | |
| p_win | 0.99 | Posterior p_win reported as 0.99 (CHANGELOG r3 positive control also cites 0.9899 pre-freeze). |
| discordance_rate | absent from this receipt | |
| go_nogo | NOT_APPLICABLE | |
| hazard_entry_null | absent from this receipt | |
| hazard_entry_full | absent from this receipt | |
| null_completion_rate | absent from this receipt | |
| full_completion_rate | absent from this receipt | |
| silent_violation_rate | absent from this receipt |
Evidence admissibility
Status: admissible
Store-backed paired Full-vs-Null run; evidence cleared the evidence admissibility gate at write time.
Instrument identity
Figures produced under different instrument identities are not comparable, so the generation stamp travels with the figures.
- extractor_model
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5- prompt_fingerprint
synthetic-control-paired-2026-07-27- schema_fingerprint
subject-file_contains+paired-freeze-binary
Source of record
- prose_path
- README.md
- date
- 2026-07-27
- notes
- Declared synthetic positive control — a skill carrying an invented fact, so the effect is real by construction. First store-backed KEEP; validates the instrument label, not a production skill. Cross-ref docs/FAQ.md.